For decades, solutions to regional scale landslide prediction have mostly relied on data-driven models, by definition, disconnected from the physics of the failure mechanism. The success and spread of such tools came from the ability to exploit proxy variables rather than explicit geotechnical ones, as the latter are prohibitive to acquire over broad landscapes. Our work implements a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) approach, thereby adding to a standard data-driven architecture, an intermediate constraint to solve for the permanent deformation typical of Newmark slope stability methods. This translates into a neural network tasked with explicitly retrieving geotechnical parameters from common proxy variables and then minimize a loss function with respect to the available coseismic landside inventory. The results are very promising, because our model not only produces excellent predictive performance in the form of standard susceptibility output, but in the process, also generates maps of the expected geotechnical properties at a regional scale. Such architecture is therefore framed to tackle coseismic landslide prediction, something that, if confirmed in other studies, could open up towards PINN-based near-real-time predictions.

Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is crucial for identifying high-risk areas and informing prevention strategies. This study investigates the interpretability of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) models in predicting landslide susceptibility. This is achieved by incorporating various relevant interpretation methods and two types of input factors: a comprehensive set of 19 contributing factors that are statistically relevant to landslides, as well as a dedicated set of 9 triggering factors directly associated with triggering landslides. Given that model performance is a crucial metric in LSM, our investigations into interpretability naturally involve assessing and comparing LSM accuracy across different models considered. In our investigation, the convolutional neural network model achieved the highest accuracy (0.8447 with 19 factors; 0.8048 with 9 factors), while Extreme Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Machine also demonstrated strong predictive capabilities, outperforming conventional statistical models. These findings indicate that DL and sophisticated ML algorithms can effectively capture the complex relationships between input factors and landslide occurrence. However, the interpretability of predictions varied among different models, particularly when using the broader set of 19 contributing factors. Explanation methods like SHAP, LIME, and DeepLIFT also led to variations in interpretation results. Using a comprehensive set of 19 contributing factors improved prediction accuracy but introduced complexities and inconsistency in model interpretations. Focusing on a dedicated set of 9 triggering factors sacrificed some predictive power but enhanced interpretability, as evidenced by more consistent key factors identified across various models and alignment with the findings of field investigation reports....

Landslides are a common natural disaster that can cause casualties, property safety threats and economic losses. Therefore, it is important to understand or predict the probability of landslide occurrence at potentially risky sites. A commonly used means is to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment based on a landslide inventory and a set of landslide contributing factors. This can be readily achieved using machine learning (ML) models such as logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (Xgboost), or deep learning (DL) models such as convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short time memory (LSTM). As the input data for these models, landslide contributing factors have varying influences on landslide occurrence. Therefore, it is logically feasible to select more important contributing factors and eliminate less relevant ones, with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy of these models. However, selecting more important factors is still a challenging task and there is no generally accepted method. Furthermore, the effects of factor selection using various methods on the prediction accuracy of ML and DL models are unclear. In this study, the impact of the selection of contributing factors on the accuracy of landslide susceptibility predictions using ML and DL models was investigated. Four methods for selecting contributing factors were considered for all the aforementioned ML and DL models, which included Information Gain Ratio (IGR), Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operators (LASSO) and Harris Hawk Optimization (HHO). In addition, autoencoder-based factor selection methods for DL models were also investigated. To assess their performances, an exhaustive approach was adopted,...

Landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) is of paramount importance in mitigating landslide risks. Recently, there has been a surge in the utilization of data-driven methods for predicting landslide susceptibility due to the growing availability of aerial and satellite data. Nonetheless, the rapid oscillations within the landslide-inducing environment (LIE), primarily due to significant changes in external triggers such as rainfall, pose difficulties for contemporary data-driven LSA methodologies to accommodate LIEs over diverse timespans. This study presents dynamic landslide susceptibility mapping that simply employs multiple predictive models for annual LSA. In practice, this will inevitably encounter small sample problems due to the limited number of landslide samples in certain years. Another concern arises owing to the majority of the existing LSA approaches train black-box models to fit distinct datasets, yet often failing in generalization and providing comprehensive explanations concerning the interactions between input features and predictions. Accordingly, we proposed to meta-learn representations with fast adaptation ability using a few samples and gradient updates; and apply SHAP for each model interpretation and landslide feature permutation. Additionally, we applied MT-InSAR for LSA result enhancement and validation. The chosen study area is Lantau Island, Hong Kong, where we conducted a comprehensive dynamic LSA spanning from 1992 to 2019. The model interpretation results demonstrate that the primary factors responsible for triggering landslides in Lantau Island are terrain slope and extreme rainfall. The results also indicate that the variation in landslide causes can be primarily attributed to extreme rainfall events, which result from global climate change, and the implementation of the Landslip Prevention and Mitigation Programme (LPMitP) by the Hong Kong government.

Landslides have been a regular occurrence and an alarming threat to human life and property in the era of anthropogenic global warming. An early prediction of landslide susceptibility using a data-driven approach is a demand of time. In this study, we explored the eloquent features that best describe landslide susceptibility with state-of-the-art machine learning methods. In our study, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms including XgBoost, LR, KNN, SVM, and Adaboost for landslide susceptibility prediction. To find the best hyperparameters of each individual classifier for optimized performance, we have incorporated the Grid Search method, with 10 Fold Cross-Validation. In this context, the optimized version of XgBoost outperformed all other classifiers with a Cross-validation Weighted F1 score of 94.62 %. Followed by this empirical evidence, we explored the XgBoost classifier by incorporating TreeSHAP, a game-theory-based statistical algorithm used to explain Machine Learning models, to identify eloquent features such as SLOPE, ELEVATION, TWI that complement the performance of the XGBoost classifier mostly and features such as LANDUSE, NDVI, SPI which has less effect on models performance. According to the TreeSHAP explanation of features, we selected the 9 most significant landslide causal factors out of 15. Evidently, an optimized version of XgBoost along with feature reduction by 40 % has outperformed all other classifiers in terms of popular evaluation metrics with a Cross-Validation Weighted F1 score of 95.01 % on the training and AUC score of 97 %

Landslides are notoriously difficult to predict because numerous spatially and temporally varying factors contribute to slope stability. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to improve prediction accuracy but are largely uninterpretable. Here we introduce an additive ANN optimization framework to assess landslide susceptibility, as well as dataset division and outcome interpretation techniques. We refer to our approach, which features full interpretability, high accuracy, high generalizability and low model complexity, as superposable neural network (SNN) optimization. We validate our approach by training models on landslide inventory from three different easternmost Himalaya regions. Our SNN outperformed physically-based and statistical models and achieved similar performance to state-of-the-art deep neural networks. The SNN models found the product of slope and precipitation and hillslope aspect to be important primary contributors to high landslide susceptibility, which highlights the importance of strong slope-climate couplings, along with microclimates, on landslide occurrences.

Predicting a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) is essential for risk recognition and disaster prevention. Despite the successful application of data-driven prediction approaches, current data-driven methods generally apply a single global model to predict the LSM for an entire target region. However, we argue that, in complex circumstances, especially in large-scale areas, each part of the region holds different landslide-inducing environments, and therefore, should be predicted individually with respective models. In this study, target scenarios were segmented into blocks for individual analysis using topographical factors. But simply conducting training and testing using limited samples within each block is hardly possible for a satisfactory LSM prediction, due to the adverse effect of \textit{overfitting}. To solve the problems, we train an intermediate representation by the meta-learning paradigm, which is superior for capturing information from LSM tasks in order to generalize proficiently. We chose this based on the hypothesis that there are more general concepts among LSM tasks that are sensitive to variations in input features. Thus, using the intermediate representation, we can easily adapt the model for different blocks or even unseen tasks using few exemplar samples. Experimental results on two study areas demonstrated the validity of our block-wise analysis in large scenarios and revealed the top few-shot adaption performances of the proposed methods.